(PSM3c) Political Sociology and Social Movements III: Revolution, Populism, Social Movements

This panel brings together critical analysis of various aspects of revolution, populism, and social movements. The panelists present empirical cases involving diverse political contexts. They offer nuanced analysis of the spillover effects of revolution on democracy and equality beyond a national political context, populism’s relationship to the pluralist principles of liberal democracy, the effects of right-wing populism on citizen’s trust in voting by mail, the choice of social movement tactics in dealing with an authoritarian government not willing to negotiate and compromise, and the strategies of anti-bilingualism movement to occupy public spaces and gain access to political power. In doing so, the panelists enrich our understanding of the dynamics of revolution, populist politics, and social movements. Tags: Politics, Social Movements

Organizer: Sherry Fox, CSA; Chairs: Catharina O'Donnell, Harvard, Deena Abul-Fottouh, Dalhousie University

Presentations

Kaitlin Wannamaker, McGill University

The Revolution Next Door

This paper titled “The Revolution Next Door” critically examines the transnational impact of revolutionary activities, particularly focusing on their influence on democracy and equality in neighboring countries. It addresses a significant gap in the existing literature by exploring the spillover effects of revolutions, which have historically been central to national developmental trajectories and are now considered in a global context. The central research question investigates the extent to which revolutionary activities in one country can instigate policy changes and concessions in neighboring countries. This inquiry is vital, considering the interconnected nature of modern global politics and the potential for revolutionary fervor to cross borders. The theoretical framework of the study is grounded in historical and contemporary analyses of revolutions (Tilly 1978; Skocpol 1979; McAdam, McCarthy, and Zald 1996). It hypothesizes that the fear of revolutionary contagion might compel elites in neighboring countries to pre-emptively offer concessions related to democracy and equality, aiming to mitigate potential uprisings. Employing a comprehensive data set covering 171 countries over 120 years, this research meticulously analyzes the relationships between types of political upheavals and their subsequent effects on democracy and equality. The methodology includes a detailed examination of various upheaval types, namely revolutions, coups, and protest-led ousters, and their respective impacts across time and space. This approach allows for a comprehensive look at both direct and indirect effects of revolutionary activities. The study’s findings show that revolutions in neighboring countries have a positive impact on domestic levels of democracy and equality. Specifically, we document noticeable increases in democracy and two indices of economic egalitarianism in countries adjacent to those experiencing revolutionary change. However, the robustness of these effects varies, with one of the egalitarianism measures being consistent across all model specifications. In contrast, isolated “protest-led ousters” are found to moderately increase suffrage and egalitarianism, while coups do not have a significant impact on these variables. Table 1 in the paper provides a comprehensive overview of the descriptive statistics related to political upheavals and the key democracy and inequality variables under study. This table is crucial in demonstrating the empirical foundation underpinning the research conclusions. The implications of this research are profound in understanding the mechanisms through which revolutions can foster reform beyond their original borders. By highlighting the potential of revolutionary moments to induce positive social changes in neighboring states, the study contributes significantly to the broader discourse on global and local dynamics in political sociology and comparative politics. It underscores the interconnectedness of global events and domestic policy changes, offering significant insights into the mechanisms through which revolutions can have a reformist impact. “The Revolution Next Door” represents a novel and critical contribution to our understanding of the dynamics of revolutionary spillovers and their reformist ends. The research illuminates the global-to-local causal sequence, demonstrating how global events like revolutions can influence domestic outcomes in neighboring countries. This study not only contributes to the academic discourse but also provides practical insights for policymakers and activists engaged in the fields of democracy and equality.

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Non-presenting author: David Calnitsky, Western University

Andrew Dawson, York University

The Trump Effect? Right-wing Populism and Distrust in Voting by Mail in Canada

Does Trump’s attacks on voting by mail influence how some Canadians view mail-in ballots? The Trump effect on views and behaviors surrounding voting by mail has been well documented in the United States. North of the border, more Canadians than ever voted by mail in the last general election. In this study, we consider how right-wing populism is associated with trust in voting by mail among Canadians. Specifically, we seek to test two main hypotheses. First, we consider whether Canadians holding populist views—and, in particular, those holding right-wing populist views—are less trusting of voting by mail. Second, we consider whether political media exposure amplifies this association. We analyze data from both the 2021 Canadian Election Study and Democracy Checkup Survey. We find that those who hold populist views clearly have less trust in voting by mail. This is especially true among right-leaning individuals. Furthermore, as in the United States, this effect is moderated by one’s level of political media exposure, with higher levels of political media exposure amplifying the effect populist views on trust in voting by mail. Our findings, therefore, suggest that the politicization of mail-in voting by President Trump has important implications for not only the legitimacy of the electoral system in the United States, but also in Canada and potentially in other parts of the world.

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Non-presenting author: Cary Wu, York University

Zitian Sun, McGill University

Pitfalls of Popularity: The Radicalization Dynamics in the 1989 Tiananmen Student Movement

In the late 20th century, the 1989 Tiananmen Student Movement (TSM) was one of the most ambitious democratic struggles worldwide. The death of a liberal political figure, Hu Yaobang, inspired millions of students and workers to march on the streets of Beijing on April 15, demanding political liberalization and democratic reform. Yet, after rounds of negotiations, students and the government failed to reach an agreement. Several student leaders mobilized a hunger strike to pressure the Chinese government and the Chinese Communist Party. However, radical tactics conflicted with the ongoing negotiation and marginalized the position of the more moderate negotiators. Eventually, on the night of June 3, the government ordered its military to repress the movement and brought the process of Chinese democratic reform to a halt. This tragic outcome for what had been such a hopeful movement raised a question: Under what condition does radicalization contribute to movement failure when regime-movement negotiation is feasible? In this article, I process-trace both elites’ interactions and the movement’s dynamics via historical archives to answer the question. First, in contrast to existing accounts on radical mobilizations, I argue that radicalization, as in escalation in demands and tactics, can be a nonviolent identity formation process without state repression. In the TSM, student mobilization decreased when the Chinese government offered to negotiate. Leaders employed cultural repertoires to highlight their legitimacy, gain political leverage via continued mobilizations, and avoid possible repression. Spectacular but nonviolent hunger strikes facilitated a distinctive moral authority of students, paralyzing the state’s bureaucratic establishment via demonstrations and strikes. Second, I argue that radicalization and its associated mass mobilization reshape elites’ coalitions and regime-movement alignments via a symbiotic dynamic. Radical discourses with cultural repertoire weaken the movement by undermining both the moderate negotiators and soft-liner elites. During the hunger strike, radical leaders disrupted negotiations and deeded any possible compromises with the state as traitorous behaviors against the movement. Moderate student leaders failed to extract meaningful concessions from the regime soft-liners, leading to a regime-movement standoff. Alternatively, this process became an opportunity for the regime hard-liners to exploit the standoff by marginalizing soft-liners, ceasing negotiations, and eventually repressing the movement violently. In brief, my case study indicates that radicalization in responding to the practical needs of mobilization and regime-movement interactions generates unintended consequences and contributes to the movement’s eventual demise. Radical tactics and repertoires establish an interconnected relationship with regime elites, but they generally undermine the concession extraction capabilities of the movement. Furthermore, I also demonstrate that China’s weak civil society in the 1980s is not the only contributing factor to the failure of the democratic transition. Instead, the radical dynamic in the movement remains equivalently critical. This paper sheds light on how social movement dynamics lead to violent repressions and the consolidation of authoritarian rule.

Joannie Jean, Université d'Ottawa; Michelle Landry, Université de Moncton

Anti-bilingualism movement: the People's Alliance Party's Strategic Choices for Occupying Public Space

Language politics in Canada are more often analysed in a language policy or rights lens. This paper is part of a research program designed to advance our understanding of language issues from a social movement perspective. The aim is to shed light on the strategies of the anti-bilingualism movement to occupy public space and gain access to the polity. The analysis presented will focus on the Peoples Alliance political party in the year leading up to the 2018 elections. In some cases, such as this one, we can consider political parties as social movement organizations because they are formed to defend a cause, or the cause is assimilated to an existing party (Kriesi, 2014). The Peoples Alliance Party, founded in 2010 around the issue of a possible sale of NB Power to Hydro Québec, has readily embraced the cause of activists who want to redefine New Brunswicks language regime, gradually making the language question one of the partys main issues (Chouinard and Gordon, 2021). This third party elected three MLAs in the 2018 election and two in the 2020 election by focusing its election campaigns on issues that seek to limit the language rights of Francophones and the linguistic duality of certain public services (e.g. school buses, health networks). Social movement parties such as the Peoples Alliance dont exactly have the same conditions of access to the public space as social movements, which are largely subject to the mainstream medias treatment of social issues (Granjon, 2000). As a third party with elected MPs, journalists pay them a certain amount of attention in the treatment of the provinces political issues, but our analysis shows that the Peoples Alliance has strategically chosen to occupy the public arena in a different way. Indeed, by analyzing the Peoples Alliance occupation of media space, this study shows how this political party mainly uses social media, such as Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and its official website, and alternative media such as Voice of the Province and The Dennis Report. This counterpart to the anti-bilingualism movement denounces and criticizes the dominant media (see Granjon, 2020), perceived by its leaders as ideological apparatuses for the domination of citizens.These strategic choices make it possible to further underpin its positioning and establish a grandstanding morale, as understood by Tosi and Warmke (2020).

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Mouvement antibilinguisme : les choix stratégiques d'occupation de l'espace public du parti People's Alliance